Category: Research

Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) for Northern California

The northern California river system encompasses five major rivers (Trinity, Sacramento, Feather, American, and San Joaquin), five major reservoirs (Trinity, Shasta, Oroville, Folsom, and New Melones), 11 medium to small reservoirs, 12 hydro power plants (of 2,140 MW total generation capacity), 30 water supply nodes and diversions (including the aqueducts to southern California), and the Sacramento-San Joaquin (Bay) Delta, which is the habitat of hundreds of aquatic terrestrial species.

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The Northern California River and Reservoir System

The northern California river system encompasses five major rivers (Trinity, Sacramento, Feather, American, and San Joaquin), five major reservoirs (Trinity, Shasta, Oroville, Folsom, and New Melones), 11 medium to small reservoirs, 12 hydro power plants (of 2,140 MW total generation capacity), 30 water supply nodes and diversions (including the aqueducts to southern California), and the Sacramento-San Joaquin (Bay) Delta, which is the habitat of hundreds of aquatic terrestrial species. The Oroville-Thermalito complex comprises the State Water Project (SWP), while the rest of the system facilities are federal and comprise the Central Valley Project (CVP).

The Northern California River and Reservoir system provides two-thirds of the state’s drinking water, irrigates 7 million acres of the world’s most productive farmland, and is home to hundreds of species of fish, birds, and plants.  In addition, the system protects Sacramento and other major cities from flood disasters and contributes significantly to the production of hydroelectric energy.  The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta provides a unique environment and is California’s most important fishery habitat.  Water from the Delta is pumped and transported through canals and aqueducts south and west and supports a multitude of vital water uses.

An agreement between the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, and the California Department of Water Resources (1986) provides for the coordinated operation of the SWP and CVP facilities (Agreement of Coordinated Operation-COA). The agreement aims to ensure that each project obtains its share of water from the Delta and protects other beneficial uses in the Delta and the Sacramento Valley. The coordination is structured around the necessity to meet the in-basin use requirements in the Sacramento Valley and the Delta, including Delta outflow and water quality requirements. Under normal hydrological conditions, the inflows from the Sacramento River, San Joaquin River, and the local stream flows can meet the needs of Delta demands and the water export. However, during dry water years, extra water has to be released from the upper major reservoirs to meet the demands. The COA specifies the manner in which the required extra water is shared by the large reservoirs in the Sacramento River basin (Clair Engle Lake [Trinity], Shasta, Oroville, and Folsom).

Project Scope and Activities

The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) project aims to develop and demonstrate integrated operational methodologies of climate and hydrologic forecasting and reservoir management to support reliable water supply for municipal, industrial, and agricultural users; energy generation; flood protection; recreation; fisheries management; and environmental and ecosystem sustainability.

The INFORM modeling system includes the following components:

  1. Climate Forecasting: NCEP GFS generates ensemble predictions of precipitation and temperature downscaled through WRF [10 x 10 km2; 6-hourly; 16 days lead]; NCEP CFS generates ensemble predictions of precipitation and temperature downscaled through ICRM [10×10 km2; 6-hourly; 41 days lead] and through probabilistic downscaling [10×10 km2; 6-hourly; 9 months lead]. [NCEP:National Center for Environmental Prediction; GFS: Global Forecast System; CFS: Climate Forecast System; ICRM: Intermediate Complexity Regional Model]
  2. Hydrologic Forecasting: CNRFC Snow Accumulation/Ablation and Soil Moisture Model; Hydrologic model uses the climate predictions and generates ensemble inflow forecasts [6-hourly–41 days lead; and daily–9 month lead].[CNRFC: California-Nevada River Forecast Center]
  3. River Routing; Water Quality Model; Bay Model: Nonlinear hydrologic river routing with data-derived parametric functions [6-hourly]; SRWQM river and lake water temperature model [monthly]; Statistical simulation of bay saline interface location [weekly]. [SRWQM: Sacramento River Water Quality Model]
  4. Reservoir and Hydropower Management: Hierarchical, multi-reservoir management model with full consideration of system uncertainties (INFORM DSS); Management model uses ensembles of inflow predictions and generates (a) ensemble predictions of system outputs [e.g., lake levels, river flows, energy generation, water temperature, salinity, etc.] and (b) probabilistic tradeoffs corresponding to alternative efficient management policies.   

Annual Water Resources Outlooks

2015Download

Related Publications

1.    HRC-GWRI. 2006. Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) for Northern California: System Development and Initial Demonstration. California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research. CEC-500-2006-109. http://www.energy.ca.gov/pier/project_reports/CEC- 500-2006-109.html]

2.    HRC-GWRI. 2013. Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM): Enhancements and Demonstration Results for Northern California (2008-2012). California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500-2014-019.

http://www.energy.ca.gov/2014publications/CEC-500-2014-019/CEC-500-2014-019.pdf

3.    Georgakakos, K.P., Graham, N.H., Cheng, F.-Y., Spencer, C., Shamir, E., Georgakakos, A.P., Yao, H., and Kistenmacher, M., “Value of Adaptive Water Resources Management in Northern California under Climatic Variability and Change: Dynamic Hydroclimatology,” J. Hydrology, Vol. 412-413, pages 47-65, 2012. Also, on line reference doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.032, 2011.

4.    Georgakakos, A.P., Yao, H., Kistenmacher, M., Georgakakos, K.P., Graham, N.H., Cheng, F.-Y., Spencer, C., Shamir, E., “Value of Adaptive Water Resources Management in Northern California under Climatic Variability and Change: Reservoir Management,” J. Hydrology, Vol. 412-413, pages 34-46, 2012. Also, on line reference doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.038, 2011.

5.    Kim, D., and A.P. Georgakakos, “A New Nonlinear Hydrologic River Routing Model,” Water Resources Research, in review, 2014.

6.    Kistenmacher, M., and A.P. Georgakakos, “Uncertainty Management for Multi-objective and Multi-dimensional Reservoir Systems, Water Resources Research, in review, 2014.    

Acknowledgements

The INFORM project has been funded by the California Energy Commission, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and CALFED (a consortium of California and federal agencies). The project has been carried out jointly by the Hydrologic Research Center (HRC; California) and the Georgia Water Resources Institute (GWRI; Georgia) in collaboration with the California – Nevada River Forecast Center of the U.S. National Weather Service, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, California Department of Water Resources, and California Energy Commission.

Additional information on the project activities can be found at http://www.hrc-lab.org/projects/dsp_projectSubPage.php?subpage=inform.

Sharing the Nile: Information and Decisions Support Systems

The Nile River

The Nile River Basin (Figure 1) covers about 10% of the African continent and is spread over eleven countries (Burundi, Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda).  Almost all Nile water is generated on an area covering 20 percent of the basin, while the remainder is in arid or semi-arid regions.  Egypt and Sudan are almost totally dependent on the Nile for their water uses.

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The Nile River

The Nile River Basin (Figure 1) covers about 10% of the African continent and is spread over eleven countries (Burundi, Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda).  Almost all Nile water is generated on an area covering 20 percent of the basin, while the remainder is in arid or semi-arid regions.  Egypt and Sudan are almost totally dependent on the Nile for their water uses.  Most other Nile countries are close to water stress, if not already below the water scarcity threshold of 1000 m3 of water per inhabitant per year.  Water stress is compounded by rapid population growth, occurring at nearly twice the average global rate.  Hence severe water scarcity conditions are looming over most Nile countries.  Nile Basin economies are heavily dependent on agriculture which accounts for more than half of the gross domestic product and employs more than 80% of the workforce.  However, lack of water supply infrastructure, marked climate variability, and poor cultivation practices have seriously restrained, if not completely halted, economic growth.

Figure 1:Nile River Geography and Socioeconomic Importance

These complex challenges are at the forefront of ongoing efforts by the Nile Basin nations to set forth equitable and lasting water development and utilization agreements that would enable sustainable economic growth. However, effective policy dialogue requires that the countries assess and weigh the benefits and impacts of various water development and management strategies accrued to themselves and other Nile partners.  Pre-requisite elements in this process are the existence of an institutional cooperative framework, information and modelling systems that can assess the value of alternative development and management scenarios, and human resources with expertise to use them effectively.

The Nile Basin technical information needs span a wide range of

(i)       sectors (water supply, agriculture, energy, environment, ecology, public health, socio-economics, etc.);

(ii)      geographic scales (basin wide, regional, national, and local);

(iii)     temporal scales (decadal, annual, seasonal, weekly, daily, and sub-daily);

(iv)     decision makers (Nile Basin Ministers; regional multi-country organizations such as those associated with the eastern and southern Nile regions; national water, agriculture, environmental and energy agencies; and local communities); and

(v)      decisions (basin infrastructure development projects, water sharing compacts, regional and national management of hydro-systems, and community and catchment scale projects).  

The purpose of the GWRI involvement in the Nile Basin over the last two decades has been to develop and transfer such systems to the Nile Basin countries.

GWRI Nile Information and Decision Support Systems

The Nile Decision Support Tools (Nile DSTs) are the outgrowth of several research and technology transfer projects implemented in the course of the last 20 years.  These were collaborative efforts with the Nile Governments and their agencies and various international organizations. The Nile DSTs include planning and operational management components developed for and used by individual country agencies as well as by regional and basin wide organizations (Figure 2).

A planning level DST, named Nile Decision Support Tool (Nile DST; 2000-2003), was developed and implemented for all 10 Nile countries under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) with support from the Italian Government. Operational management DSTs have been developed for and are currently used in Uganda, Tanzania, and Kenya (Lake Victoria DST; 1997-1999 and 2002-2005) under World Bank and FAO support, and Egypt (High Aswan Dam DSS; 1993-1996, and 2003-2005) under support from the US Agency for International Development and the Government of the Netherlands. While these tools were built separately, they share a consistent modeling framework and are designed as components of an integrated system. The Nile DSTs are developed to address the Nile Basin decision making needs and span a wide range of geographic and temporal scales, sectors, decision makers, and policy choices.

The Nile Decision Support Tools combine extensive data bases, Geographic Information Systems, and a suite of interlinked models for climate forecasting, satellite based rainfall estimation, streamflow forecasting, river and reservoir simulation, irrigation planning, river basin management, energy system planning and management, and economic assessment.  They are intended to provide engineers, managers, and policy makers with the knowledge to develop and implement sustainable water and energy development and sharing strategies for much needed economic development.

Figure 2:GWRI Planning and Management Decision Support Tools

Training and Technology Transfer Activities

Information and decision support systems are advanced science products that cannot be sustained without sufficient human resources qualified to utilize, maintain, and further develop them. As part of the DSS development efforts, GWRI have been working to develop the technical capacity of water resources engineers, managers, and policy makers through intensive hands-on training workshops; study tours and executive seminars; one- and two-semester traineeships in the US; and full enrollment at Georgia Tech’s graduate water resources program.  Specifically, more than 75 engineers from all Nile Basin countries have participated in annual training workshops in the course of the last 15 years and have become an important technical resource currently using and maintaining the Nile Decision Support Tools in their respective countries.  Intense, two to four week, training workshops have been held annually at various Nile countries (including Egypt, Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda) aiming to provide technical understanding and hands-on application experience on the Nile DST methods and software usage (data management and GIS, climate and hydrologic forecasting, remote sensing, river simulation and reservoir management, agricultural planning, integrated water-energy system planning, economic assessments, etc.).  These training activities are having tangible impacts with many of the trained engineers being promoted to leadership positions at various national and regional water resources agencies and organizations.        

Selected Technical Reports Related to the Nile Basin

  1. Evaluation of Water Use Scenarios for the Nile Basin, Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, Technical Report, Developed for the World Bank, Atlanta, October 1999, 106p.
  2. An Assessment of Development Options, Management Strategies, and Climate Scenarios for the Nile Basin, Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, Technical Report, Developed for the US Department of State, Atlanta, April 2000, 121p.
  3. Nile Decision Support Tool, Executive Summary, Developed in cooperation with the Nile Basin Nations under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Final Technical Report, Georgia Water Resources Institute, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, November 2003, 14p.  
  4. Nile Decision Support Tool, Agricultural Planning, Developed in cooperation with the Nile Basin Nations under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Final Technical Report, Georgia Water Resources Institute, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, November 2003, 56p.  
  5. Nile Decision Support Tool, Watershed Hydrology, Developed in cooperation with the Nile Basin Nations under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Final Technical Report, Georgia Water Resources Institute, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, November 2003, 54p.  
  6. Nile Decision Support Tool, Remote Sensing, Developed in cooperation with the Nile Basin Nations under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Final Technical Report, Georgia Water Resources Institute, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, November 2003, 67p.  
  7. Nile Decision Support Tool, River Simulation and Management, Developed in cooperation with the Nile Basin Nations under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Final Technical Report, Georgia Water Resources Institute, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, November 2003, 171p.  
  8. Nile Decision Support Tool, User Manuals, Developed in cooperation with the Nile Basin Nations under the auspices of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Final Technical Reports, Georgia Water Resources Institute, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, November 2003, 352p.  
  9. Decision Support System for the Management of the High Aswan Dam (HAD DSS), Developed for the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Arab Republic of Egypt, Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, Technical Report, Atlanta, March 2005, 87p.
  10. Decision Support System for the Management of the High Aswan Dam (HAD DSS), User Manual,  Developed for the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Arab Republic of Egypt, Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, Technical Report, Atlanta, March 2005, 93p.
  11. Study on Water Management of Lake Victoria, Executive Summary, Uganda Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, Main Technical Report, Georgakakos, A.P., H. Yao, K. Brumbelow, S. Bourne, A. Tidwell, and L. Visone, Atlanta, March 2008, 64p.
  12. Study on Water Management of Lake Victoria, Hydraulic Model, Uganda Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, Technical Report 6, Georgakakos, A.P., F. Sotiropoulos, and H. Yao, Atlanta, November 2007, 57p.
  13. Study on Water Management of Lake Victoria, Lake Victoria Decision Support Tool (LV DST),  Uganda Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, Technical Report 7, Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, Atlanta, November 2007, 120p.
  14. Study on Water Management of Lake Victoria, Power System Planning and Economic Assessment, Uganda Ministry of Energy and Mineral Development, Technical Report 9, Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, Atlanta, March 2008, 116p.
  15. Mara River Decision Support System (Mara DSS), Mara River Basin TIWRMD Project, Nile Basin Initiative (NELSAP), Final Technical Report and User Manual, Aris Georgakakos, Huaming Yao, and Martin Kistenmacher, Atlanta, August 2008, 117p.
  16. Assessment of the Impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Final Technical Report, Georgakakos, A.P., and H. Yao, Atlanta, May 2013, 186p.

Acknowledgements

The GWRI involvement in the Nile Basin has been funded by several international organizations and Nile Basin Governments. These include the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO-UN), World Bank, U.S. Department of State, US Agency for International Development, US Bureau of Reclamation, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Sweden International Development Agency (SIDA), Netherlands Ministry of Development Cooperation, Government of Egypt, Government of Tanzania, and Government of Uganda.

2014 State Water Resources Research Program (104b)

The FY 2014 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources will be used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia.

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The FY 2014 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources will be used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia. Four sub‐grants will support the following projects:

  1. Validation of Oysters as Biomonitors of Pharmaceutical Pollution in Georgia; M. Black; University of Georgia.
  2. The effect of salt marsh hydrodynamics on estuarine flow; Improvement and Uncertainty Assessment; K. Haas and D. Webster; Georgia Institute of Technology.
  3. Implications of eutrophication and climate change in promoting toxic cyanobacterial blooms inagricultural ponds across Georgia; S. Wilde and D. Mishra; University of Georgia.
  4. Baseline Conservation Analysis for Agricultural Irrigation in Priority Watersheds of the Lower Flint River Basin; M. Masters; Albany State University.

2013 State Water Resources Research Program (104b)

The FY 2013 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia.

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The FY 2013 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia. The two sub‐grants were awarded to support the following projects:

  1. Tracking the impact of on‐site wastewater treatment systems on stream water quality in the Metro‐Atlanta area; M. Hubteselassie and D. Radcliffe Co‐PIs; University of Georgia. 
  2. Unimpaired Flows for the ACF River Basin; Improvement and Uncertainty Assessment; M. Kistenmacher and A. Georgakakos Co‐PIs; Georgia Institute of Technology.

Additionally, GWRI co-sponsored the Georgia Water Resources Conference held in April 2013.

2012 State Water Resources Research Program (104b)

The FY 2012 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia.

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The FY 2012 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia. The following projects were funded as part of the program:

  1. Impact of Upstream Water Use on Salinity and Ecology of Apalachicola Bay; P. Roberts; Georgia Institute of Technology.
  2. Monitoring Diurnal and Seasonal Cycle of Evapotranspiration over Georgia using Remote Sensing Observations; J. Wang; Georgia Institute of Technology.

2011 State Water Resources Research Program (104b)

The FY 2011 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia. Four sub‐grants supported the following projects:

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The FY 2011 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia. Four sub‐grants supported the following projects:

  1. Flood Risk and Homeowners’ Flood Risk Perceptions: Evidence from Property Prices in Georgia; S. Ferreira; University of Georgia
  2. Assessment of endocrine disruption in fish and estrogenic potency of waters in Georgia; R. Bringolf, C. Jennings, J. Zuiderveen; University of Georgia and Columbus State University.
  3. Impact of Upstream Water Use on Salinity and Ecology of Apalachicola Bay; P. Roberts; Georgia Institute of Technology.

Additionally, GWRI co-sponsored the Georgia Water Resources Conference held in April 2011.

2008-2010 State Water Resources Research Program (104b)

The FY 2008- FY 2010 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia.

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The FY 2008- FY 2010 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia.

The research projects supported during this time span can be found in the three year Evaluation Report.

Nile DST

The Nile Basin is home for 250 million people spread into ten different countries. For all these countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritreia, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Congo), the river is life itself, helping to grow crops, sustain livestock, and power economic development. However, the time when the river could generously meet each country’s water needs independently of all the rest is coming to an end, and the need for basin-wide management is becoming clear.

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Project Description

Huaming Yao (Research Associate)
Amy Tidwell (Research Associate)
Carlo De Marchi (Research Associate)
Kelly Brumbelow (Research Associate)

Sponsor: UN FAO

Keywords:


Description
The Nile Basin is home for 250 million people spread into ten different countries. For all these countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritreia, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Congo), the river is life itself, helping to grow crops, sustain livestock, and power economic development. However, the time when the river could generously meet each country’s water needs independently of all the rest is coming to an end, and the need for basin-wide management is becoming clear. The Georgia Water Resources Institute has been developing a state-of-the-science decision support system that encompasses the river reaches of the White, Blue, and Main Nile branches, along with the existing and proposed water conservation and development projects. The Nile decision support system (Nile-DSS) includes models for inflow forecasting, river and reservoir routing, and reservoir control, and runs on personal computers under a user-friendly, graphical interface. The purpose of the Nile-DSS is to facilitate the Nile Basin Stakeholders in setting forth equitable and lasting water use agreements.

Organic Pollutants

Increasing pollution of water resources has stimulated the development of sensor systems capable of screening organic pollutants in the aquatic environment. Especially in urban areas, increasing concentration of volatile organic compounds in surface and ground water threaten primary sources of drinking water.

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Principal Investigator: Boris Mizaikoff (Georgia Tech)

Sponsor: GWRI
Start Date: 2002-09-01; Completion Date: 2004-09-01;
Keywords: Water Quality, Surface Water, Toxic Substances


Problem and Research Objective:

Increasing pollution of water resources has stimulated the development of sensor systems capable of screening organic pollutants in the aquatic environment. Especially in urban areas, increasing concentration of volatile organic compounds in surface and ground water threaten primary sources of drinking water. Hence, there is a substantial demand for in-situ, continuously operating and reliable analysis methods emphasizing selective determination of abundant pollutants, such as chlorinated hydrocarbons (CHCs), pesticides or the broad class of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs).

The main goal of this research project is the optimization, application and validation of infrared chemical sensor systems for the determination of organic pollutants such as chlorinated hydrocarbons, pesticides or endocrine disrupting compounds in the Rottenwood Creek stream, an urban stream located in the metro Atlanta area. This stream is affected by residential, commercial and industrial land use. Synthetic sensing interfaces (‘biomimetics’) based on sol-gels and imprinted polymers emphasizing selective analyte recognition will be combined with existing infrared sensor systems already established by our research group. Following optimization of the instrument in the laboratory and validation with real-world samples, measurements at Rottenwood Creek are envisaged as representative example of an urbanized water resource.