Author: Anthony Vining

Adjustment of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Upstream Water Use and Regulation

In watersheds with appreciable water use and regulation (including storage reservoirs, in-stream withdrawals, and/or inter-basin water transfers), the development of reliable ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) at downstream locations requires characterization and incorporation of the expected streamflow alterations from natural conditions and their associated uncertainty.  Streamflow alterations can be incorporated if, as part of the ESP forecast generation process, water use and regulation activities are represented with sufficient accuracy. 

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Streamflow Predictions for Upstream Water Use and Regulation

Effects of Water Use and Regulation

In watersheds with appreciable water use and regulation (including storage reservoirs, in-stream withdrawals, and/or inter-basin water transfers), the development of reliable ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) at downstream locations requires characterization and incorporation of the expected streamflow alterations from natural conditions and their associated uncertainty.  Streamflow alterations can be incorporated if, as part of the ESP forecast generation process, water use and regulation activities are represented with sufficient accuracy.  This approach can be effective in watersheds where flow alterations occur due to large, main stem river projects and well documented water use activities, but it becomes impractical where flow alterations result from many small and/or medium scale storage projects and water use activities distributed throughout the watershed.  In the latter cases, comprehensive information on reservoir filling and depletion, water withdrawals and returns, and/or water transfers is both not readily available and subject to change from year to year, adding bias and uncertainty to the flow forecasts. This research project develops and demonstrates procedures to characterize the aggregate flow alteration biases and uncertainty in watersheds in the latter category and incorporate them in ensemble streamflow predictions at downstream points.

Project Scope and Activities

This research project develops and demonstrates a new method to characterize the aggregate flow alteration biases and associated uncertainty in watersheds with important but largely undocumented water use and regulation activities.

The approach includes procedures to (a) detect the presence of significant upstream regulation and water use influences; (b) correct the ensemble streamflow predictions and associated uncertainty for any biases during periods when upstream regulation and water use influences are detected; and (c) assess the forecast reliability improvements. Validation results are reported for three California watersheds. The forecast adjustment approach has been developed for operational use in routine forecast operations of the U.S. National Weather Service River Forecast Centers.  

Related Publications

1.    Georgakakos, A.P., H. Yao, and K.P. Georgakakos, “Upstream Regulation Effects on Ensemble Streamflow Prediction,” Journal of Hydrology, in press, 2014.

Acknowledgements

This project was funded by the Hydrologic Research Laboratory of the National Weather Service and was carried out jointly by the Hydrologic Research Center (HRC; California) and the Georgia Water Resources Institute (GWRI; Georgia) in collaboration with the NWS River Forecast Centers.

Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) for Northern California

The northern California river system encompasses five major rivers (Trinity, Sacramento, Feather, American, and San Joaquin), five major reservoirs (Trinity, Shasta, Oroville, Folsom, and New Melones), 11 medium to small reservoirs, 12 hydro power plants (of 2,140 MW total generation capacity), 30 water supply nodes and diversions (including the aqueducts to southern California), and the Sacramento-San Joaquin (Bay) Delta, which is the habitat of hundreds of aquatic terrestrial species.

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The Northern California River and Reservoir System

The northern California river system encompasses five major rivers (Trinity, Sacramento, Feather, American, and San Joaquin), five major reservoirs (Trinity, Shasta, Oroville, Folsom, and New Melones), 11 medium to small reservoirs, 12 hydro power plants (of 2,140 MW total generation capacity), 30 water supply nodes and diversions (including the aqueducts to southern California), and the Sacramento-San Joaquin (Bay) Delta, which is the habitat of hundreds of aquatic terrestrial species. The Oroville-Thermalito complex comprises the State Water Project (SWP), while the rest of the system facilities are federal and comprise the Central Valley Project (CVP).

The Northern California River and Reservoir system provides two-thirds of the state’s drinking water, irrigates 7 million acres of the world’s most productive farmland, and is home to hundreds of species of fish, birds, and plants.  In addition, the system protects Sacramento and other major cities from flood disasters and contributes significantly to the production of hydroelectric energy.  The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta provides a unique environment and is California’s most important fishery habitat.  Water from the Delta is pumped and transported through canals and aqueducts south and west and supports a multitude of vital water uses.

An agreement between the US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, and the California Department of Water Resources (1986) provides for the coordinated operation of the SWP and CVP facilities (Agreement of Coordinated Operation-COA). The agreement aims to ensure that each project obtains its share of water from the Delta and protects other beneficial uses in the Delta and the Sacramento Valley. The coordination is structured around the necessity to meet the in-basin use requirements in the Sacramento Valley and the Delta, including Delta outflow and water quality requirements. Under normal hydrological conditions, the inflows from the Sacramento River, San Joaquin River, and the local stream flows can meet the needs of Delta demands and the water export. However, during dry water years, extra water has to be released from the upper major reservoirs to meet the demands. The COA specifies the manner in which the required extra water is shared by the large reservoirs in the Sacramento River basin (Clair Engle Lake [Trinity], Shasta, Oroville, and Folsom).

Project Scope and Activities

The Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) project aims to develop and demonstrate integrated operational methodologies of climate and hydrologic forecasting and reservoir management to support reliable water supply for municipal, industrial, and agricultural users; energy generation; flood protection; recreation; fisheries management; and environmental and ecosystem sustainability.

The INFORM modeling system includes the following components:

  1. Climate Forecasting: NCEP GFS generates ensemble predictions of precipitation and temperature downscaled through WRF [10 x 10 km2; 6-hourly; 16 days lead]; NCEP CFS generates ensemble predictions of precipitation and temperature downscaled through ICRM [10×10 km2; 6-hourly; 41 days lead] and through probabilistic downscaling [10×10 km2; 6-hourly; 9 months lead]. [NCEP:National Center for Environmental Prediction; GFS: Global Forecast System; CFS: Climate Forecast System; ICRM: Intermediate Complexity Regional Model]
  2. Hydrologic Forecasting: CNRFC Snow Accumulation/Ablation and Soil Moisture Model; Hydrologic model uses the climate predictions and generates ensemble inflow forecasts [6-hourly–41 days lead; and daily–9 month lead].[CNRFC: California-Nevada River Forecast Center]
  3. River Routing; Water Quality Model; Bay Model: Nonlinear hydrologic river routing with data-derived parametric functions [6-hourly]; SRWQM river and lake water temperature model [monthly]; Statistical simulation of bay saline interface location [weekly]. [SRWQM: Sacramento River Water Quality Model]
  4. Reservoir and Hydropower Management: Hierarchical, multi-reservoir management model with full consideration of system uncertainties (INFORM DSS); Management model uses ensembles of inflow predictions and generates (a) ensemble predictions of system outputs [e.g., lake levels, river flows, energy generation, water temperature, salinity, etc.] and (b) probabilistic tradeoffs corresponding to alternative efficient management policies.   

Annual Water Resources Outlooks

2015Download

Related Publications

1.    HRC-GWRI. 2006. Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM) for Northern California: System Development and Initial Demonstration. California Energy Commission, PIER Energy-Related Environmental Research. CEC-500-2006-109. http://www.energy.ca.gov/pier/project_reports/CEC- 500-2006-109.html]

2.    HRC-GWRI. 2013. Integrated Forecast and Reservoir Management (INFORM): Enhancements and Demonstration Results for Northern California (2008-2012). California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500-2014-019.

http://www.energy.ca.gov/2014publications/CEC-500-2014-019/CEC-500-2014-019.pdf

3.    Georgakakos, K.P., Graham, N.H., Cheng, F.-Y., Spencer, C., Shamir, E., Georgakakos, A.P., Yao, H., and Kistenmacher, M., “Value of Adaptive Water Resources Management in Northern California under Climatic Variability and Change: Dynamic Hydroclimatology,” J. Hydrology, Vol. 412-413, pages 47-65, 2012. Also, on line reference doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.032, 2011.

4.    Georgakakos, A.P., Yao, H., Kistenmacher, M., Georgakakos, K.P., Graham, N.H., Cheng, F.-Y., Spencer, C., Shamir, E., “Value of Adaptive Water Resources Management in Northern California under Climatic Variability and Change: Reservoir Management,” J. Hydrology, Vol. 412-413, pages 34-46, 2012. Also, on line reference doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.04.038, 2011.

5.    Kim, D., and A.P. Georgakakos, “A New Nonlinear Hydrologic River Routing Model,” Water Resources Research, in review, 2014.

6.    Kistenmacher, M., and A.P. Georgakakos, “Uncertainty Management for Multi-objective and Multi-dimensional Reservoir Systems, Water Resources Research, in review, 2014.    

Acknowledgements

The INFORM project has been funded by the California Energy Commission, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and CALFED (a consortium of California and federal agencies). The project has been carried out jointly by the Hydrologic Research Center (HRC; California) and the Georgia Water Resources Institute (GWRI; Georgia) in collaboration with the California – Nevada River Forecast Center of the U.S. National Weather Service, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, California Department of Water Resources, and California Energy Commission.

Additional information on the project activities can be found at http://www.hrc-lab.org/projects/dsp_projectSubPage.php?subpage=inform.

2014 State Water Resources Research Program (104b)

The FY 2014 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources will be used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia.

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The FY 2014 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources will be used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia. Four sub‐grants will support the following projects:

  1. Validation of Oysters as Biomonitors of Pharmaceutical Pollution in Georgia; M. Black; University of Georgia.
  2. The effect of salt marsh hydrodynamics on estuarine flow; Improvement and Uncertainty Assessment; K. Haas and D. Webster; Georgia Institute of Technology.
  3. Implications of eutrophication and climate change in promoting toxic cyanobacterial blooms inagricultural ponds across Georgia; S. Wilde and D. Mishra; University of Georgia.
  4. Baseline Conservation Analysis for Agricultural Irrigation in Priority Watersheds of the Lower Flint River Basin; M. Masters; Albany State University.

2013 State Water Resources Research Program (104b)

The FY 2013 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia.

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The FY 2013 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia. The two sub‐grants were awarded to support the following projects:

  1. Tracking the impact of on‐site wastewater treatment systems on stream water quality in the Metro‐Atlanta area; M. Hubteselassie and D. Radcliffe Co‐PIs; University of Georgia. 
  2. Unimpaired Flows for the ACF River Basin; Improvement and Uncertainty Assessment; M. Kistenmacher and A. Georgakakos Co‐PIs; Georgia Institute of Technology.

Additionally, GWRI co-sponsored the Georgia Water Resources Conference held in April 2013.

2012 State Water Resources Research Program (104b)

The FY 2012 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia.

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The FY 2012 state funding (104B) provided to the Georgia Water Resources Institute from the United States Geological Survey through the National Institutes for Water Resources was used to support critical research needs, graduate education, and information dissemination in the State of Georgia. The following projects were funded as part of the program:

  1. Impact of Upstream Water Use on Salinity and Ecology of Apalachicola Bay; P. Roberts; Georgia Institute of Technology.
  2. Monitoring Diurnal and Seasonal Cycle of Evapotranspiration over Georgia using Remote Sensing Observations; J. Wang; Georgia Institute of Technology.

Nile DST

The Nile Basin is home for 250 million people spread into ten different countries. For all these countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritreia, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Congo), the river is life itself, helping to grow crops, sustain livestock, and power economic development. However, the time when the river could generously meet each country’s water needs independently of all the rest is coming to an end, and the need for basin-wide management is becoming clear.

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Project Description

Huaming Yao (Research Associate)
Amy Tidwell (Research Associate)
Carlo De Marchi (Research Associate)
Kelly Brumbelow (Research Associate)

Sponsor: UN FAO

Keywords:


Description
The Nile Basin is home for 250 million people spread into ten different countries. For all these countries (Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan, Eritreia, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Congo), the river is life itself, helping to grow crops, sustain livestock, and power economic development. However, the time when the river could generously meet each country’s water needs independently of all the rest is coming to an end, and the need for basin-wide management is becoming clear. The Georgia Water Resources Institute has been developing a state-of-the-science decision support system that encompasses the river reaches of the White, Blue, and Main Nile branches, along with the existing and proposed water conservation and development projects. The Nile decision support system (Nile-DSS) includes models for inflow forecasting, river and reservoir routing, and reservoir control, and runs on personal computers under a user-friendly, graphical interface. The purpose of the Nile-DSS is to facilitate the Nile Basin Stakeholders in setting forth equitable and lasting water use agreements.

Organic Pollutants

Increasing pollution of water resources has stimulated the development of sensor systems capable of screening organic pollutants in the aquatic environment. Especially in urban areas, increasing concentration of volatile organic compounds in surface and ground water threaten primary sources of drinking water.

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Principal Investigator: Boris Mizaikoff (Georgia Tech)

Sponsor: GWRI
Start Date: 2002-09-01; Completion Date: 2004-09-01;
Keywords: Water Quality, Surface Water, Toxic Substances


Problem and Research Objective:

Increasing pollution of water resources has stimulated the development of sensor systems capable of screening organic pollutants in the aquatic environment. Especially in urban areas, increasing concentration of volatile organic compounds in surface and ground water threaten primary sources of drinking water. Hence, there is a substantial demand for in-situ, continuously operating and reliable analysis methods emphasizing selective determination of abundant pollutants, such as chlorinated hydrocarbons (CHCs), pesticides or the broad class of endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs).

The main goal of this research project is the optimization, application and validation of infrared chemical sensor systems for the determination of organic pollutants such as chlorinated hydrocarbons, pesticides or endocrine disrupting compounds in the Rottenwood Creek stream, an urban stream located in the metro Atlanta area. This stream is affected by residential, commercial and industrial land use. Synthetic sensing interfaces (‘biomimetics’) based on sol-gels and imprinted polymers emphasizing selective analyte recognition will be combined with existing infrared sensor systems already established by our research group. Following optimization of the instrument in the laboratory and validation with real-world samples, measurements at Rottenwood Creek are envisaged as representative example of an urbanized water resource.

Decreasing irrigation volumes

Agricultural water use is a major portion of total water consumed in many critical regions of Georgia. Georgia has over 9000 center pivot systems, watering about 1.1 million acres (445,000 ha). Many fields irrigated by these systems have highly variable soils with areas ranging from very sandy to very heavy as well as non-cropped areas.

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Principal Investigator: Stuart Pocknee (University of Georgia)
Principal Investigator: Calvin Perry (University of Georgia)
Principal Investigator: Craig Kvien (University of Georgia)
Principal Investigator: George Vellidis (University of Georgia)

Abstract:

Agricultural water use is a major portion of total water consumed in many critical regions of Georgia. Georgia has over 9000 center pivot systems, watering about 1.1 million acres (445,000 ha). Many fields irrigated by these systems have highly variable soils with areas ranging from very sandy to very heavy as well as non-cropped areas. Current irrigation systems are not capable of varying the water application rate to meet the needs of plants on different soil types nor capable of stopping application in non-cropped inclusions. This limitation results in over-applying or under-applying irrigation water. In addition, five years of drought and a lawsuit over Georgia water use by Florida and Alabama have prompted a renewed interest in water conservation methods by the general public, which is becoming increasingly insistent that agriculture do it’s part in conserving water.

The University of Georgia / NESPAL Precision Ag Team has developed a prototype method for differentially applying irrigation water to match the precise needs of individual sub-field zones. Recognizing that water is the major yield determiner in nearly all agricultural settings, the original interest lay in varying application rates from a precision crop production viewpoint. However, it was quickly apparent that a method for varying irrigation across a field could also lead to substantial water savings. The method is referred to as Variable-Rate Irrigation (VRI). This system easily retrofits onto existing center pivot irrigation systems.

This research is expected to accomplish the following:
To complete the development of the VRI system that will enable growers to conserve irrigation water while enhancing profitability – both accomplished through site-specific water management. To gather needed application data to verify uniform and variable application rates are being achieved. To gather data needed to verify calculated water savings are being achieved and yields are being enhanced. To gather the economic information needed to effectively manage and justify such variable-rate systems.

Sponsor: GWRI
Start Date: 2003-03-01; Completion Date: 2004-02-28;
Keywords: irrigation management, water use efficiency, agriculture

Brain Scale

The proposed research addresses the scale problem in surface water hydrology; specifically it focuses upon using isotope and geochemical tracers to assess the effects of basin scale upon base flow generation. It is expected that the temporal and spatial varitions with respect to major ion concentrations, stable oxygen and strontium isotope ratios, environmental tritium concentrations will reveal useful information pertaining to how recharge is eventually processed as base flow within Piedmont Province watersheds.

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Principal Investigator: Seth Rose (Georgia State University)


Sponsor: GWRI
Start Date: 2003-03-01; Completion Date: 2004-02-28;
Keywords: Base Flow, Isotope Hydrology, Georgia Piedmont Watersheds, Middle Oconee River basin, Age-dating of water


Abstract:

The proposed research addresses the scale problem in surface water hydrology; specifically it focuses upon using isotope and geochemical tracers to assess the effects of basin scale upon base flow generation. It is expected that the temporal and spatial varitions with respect to major ion concentrations, stable oxygen and strontium isotope ratios, environmental tritium concentrations will reveal useful information pertaining to how recharge is eventually processed as base flow within Piedmont Province watersheds. The key question is whether the contribution of water to a large watershed comes solely from small watersheds (i.e. local flow systems) or whether a regional flow system transports base flow to higher order Piedmont streams. The investigation of seasonal isotopic variability of base flow on different spatial scales along with rainfall and shallow ground water should provide a wealth of interpretable data that can be used to address this question. The proposed utilization of strontium isotope ratios (a tracer of the lithogenic contribution to water chemistry)likely represents the first such study of its kind in this setting. The proposed study area is the Middle Oconee River basin which is located in a relatively underdeveloped region between Atlanta and Athens, Georgia.