Value of Forecasting

The value of streamflow forecasts in reservoir operation depends on a number of factors and may vary considerably. Assessment of forecast benefits is presented here for three specific systems. Statistical streamflow models of increasing forecasting ability are coupled with a recently developed stochastic control method in extensive simulation experiments.

Principal Investigator: Aris Georgakakos (GWRI/Georgia Tech)

Sponsor: GWRI
Start Date: 1988-03-01; Completion Date: 1988-03-01;
Keywords: Streamflow Forecasting, Reservoir Operation, Hydropower, Flood


Description:
The value of streamflow forecasts in reservoir operation depends on a number of factors and may vary considerably. Assessment of forecast benefits is presented here for three specific systems. Statistical streamflow models of increasing forecasting ability are coupled with a recently developed stochastic control method in extensive simulation experiments. The systems’ performance is statistically evaluated with regard to energy generation and flood and drought prevention. The results indicate that forecast benefits are system specific and may range from quite substantial to fairly minimal.