Principal Investigator: Ronald M. North (University of Georgia)
Principal Investigator: Jackie Sellers (University of Georgia)
Sponsor: GWRI
Start Date: 1989-04-01; Completion Date: 1990-04-01;
Keywords: water demand, forecasting, water use, demand models, water pricing, conservation.
Description:
Direct water demand estimates are useful for resolving capacity needs, system expansion, financing of systems, acquiring and issuing water use permits from water authorities and for efficient management purposes. Hickman and Associates, Inc. developed a water use forecasting system called MAIN (Municipal and Industrial Needs system). This was later adopted by the Institute for Water Resources, Corps of Engineers, our source for the program to calibrate for Georgia conditions.
Our experiences with calibrating the IWR-MAIN model were not as accurate as some of the reported calibration tests in western states. Our best reconciliation of IWR-MAIN estimate for 1990 (23.6 mgd) with data supplied by the Macon/Bibb County Water Authority (21. 8 mgd) was 7.5% higher than the water authority records, excluding public and unaccounted uses. The USGS estimated uses for publicly supplied water at 28.3 mgd was 7.6% higher than the IWR-MAIN estimate of 26.3 mgd and 15% higher than the estimate from the Macon/Bibb County Water Authority. Implementation of two conservation programs in Macon indicate water savings for out years (1990-2010) could be reduced by four to seven percent. We conclude that the IWR-MAIN water demand forecasting system would provide reasonably consistent results because of the standard methodology used if it were applied throughout the state of Georgia.